CBS 2019
CBSMD教育中心
中 文

科学研究

Abstract

Recommended Article

Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in China, 1990-2016: Findings From the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study Mechanical circulatory support devices for acute right ventricular failure In-stent neoatherosclerosis: a final common pathway of late stent failure Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Heart Failure: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association and the Heart Failure Society of America Guideline‐Directed Medical Therapy for Patients With Heart Failure With Midrange Ejection Fraction: A Patient‐Pooled Analysis From the KorHF and KorAHF Registries Natriuretic Peptide-Guided Heart Failure Therapy After the GUIDE-IT Study Short- versus long-term duration of dual-antiplatelet therapy after coronary stenting: a randomized multicenter trial Association of Abnormal Left Ventricular Functional Reserve With Outcome in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Original Research2016 Nov 8;134(19):1430-1440.

JOURNAL:Circulation. Article Link

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China)

XL Yang, JX Li, DF Gu et al. Keywords: assessment; atherosclerosis; cardiovascular diseases; risk; risk factors

ABSTRACT


BACKGROUND - The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts.


METHODS - Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline.

RESULTS - Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ2 values in men.

CONCLUSIONS - Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease.

© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.