CBS 2019
CBSMD教育中心
中 文

科学研究

Abstract

Recommended Article

1-Year Outcomes of Delayed Versus Immediate Intervention in Patients With Transient ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Differential prognostic effect of intravascular ultrasound use according to implanted stent length Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: Role of Multimodality Imaging in Common and Complex Clinical Scenarios 5-Year Outcomes After TAVR With Balloon-Expandable Versus Self-Expanding Valves: Results From the CHOICE Randomized Clinical Trial Association of Sustained Blood Pressure Control with Multimorbidity Progression Among Older Adults Accuracy of Fractional Flow Reserve Derived From Coronary Angiography Differential Impact of Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction on Men and Women Nonculprit Lesion Plaque Morphology in Patients With ST-Segment–Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Results From the COMPLETE Trial Optical Coherence Tomography Substudys

Original Research2016 Nov 8;134(19):1430-1440.

JOURNAL:Circulation. Article Link

Predicting the 10-Year Risks of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Population: The China-PAR Project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China)

XL Yang, JX Li, DF Gu et al. Keywords: assessment; atherosclerosis; cardiovascular diseases; risk; risk factors

ABSTRACT


BACKGROUND - The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts.


METHODS - Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline.

RESULTS - Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787-0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ2 of 13.1 for men (P=0.16) and 12.8 for women (P=0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ2 values in men.

CONCLUSIONS - Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease.

© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.